@ternel2 дня назад +28
Couple things I disagree with this timeline.
First is lend lease from the Americans to the Soviets would most likely not occur in this situation since the Americans have no reason to get involved with the second Russo Japanese war. Without American factories to supplement soviet production, there is no way the soviets would be able to have the materials on hand to fight 2 wars like this, even if they fought with superior weapons.
Second, in our timeline the soviets had time to move their production east to the Urals which was beyond the German reach. In this scenario with forces already diverted east, it's likely the soviets wouldn't have had that time and would have their domestic production shattered which would have compounded their deficit in war material.
Without a Pearl Harbor event to get the Americans into the war, it is likely the US would have stayed out entirely. Without American support, North Africa might look very different and the British might have lost Cairo and the Canal.
Also note is that had the boarder skirmishes gone differently, it is likely that a certain General Zhukov would have either been killed on the field or even purged for failing to contain the Japanese, thus depriving the soviets of what in our timeline was one of their best commanders.
Finally, there is also the possibility that America actually lend leases Japanese efforts to destroy the soviets. Keep in mind the west did try to intervene in the Russian Civil war in the 1920s only to see the reds win over the whites. Now with the Germans in the west and the Japanese in the east, the Americans might be willing to support the Japanese efforts to destroy communism.
@ThebaconmurdererДень назад +12
I was just typing this out, but one more thing I would have included was the fact that sustaining a couple million men on both fronts would have absolutely crumpled under the Soviet infrastructure. I feel like starvation would have wiped out half the forces or just plain made them surrender, at least to the Germans. I don't know if they would want to surrender to the Japanese at that time. I also feel as if the Germans would have diverted more troops to Africa or Italy since they would have a large portion of the Soviet troops off in the east. Also, the loss of the Caucasus would halt the majority of the Soviet armor and aircraft advancements, which plays in part with the US lend lease.
@MisterMick113День назад +4
Yes I was wondering this myself. Since the Japanese are still trading with the US here, how would the Soviets have been able to keep up a two front war? Especially considering the Japanese had the resources available as well as decent manpower in China. It would make sense that they would try the Asia for Asians propaganda from our timeline so they would be drawing on their captured territory and maybe even a Chinese army to help fight the Soviets.
@LordDaret23 часа назад +1
Plus considering that people didn’t really see the difference between the USSR and Germany, it is likely the communist wouldn’t be supported because they were viewed as evil anyway in the eyes of the allies.
@nathanbean876316 часов назад
Very good points, I think it may even be feasible, like your last point, for the US to have, if not supported the Germans, at least not given aid to Britain, potentially forcing a British capitulation.
@Za11oy44 минуты назад
I think there are several points of contention to take into such a scenario and each one pays heavy influence into how things would have played out. How much supports would the USA gives the Japanese in their fight against Communism. How much support they would have given the Allies for that matter, in the case that the Japanese and Germany were busy with the Soviets.
One have to wonder if the Japanese really wouldn't expand at all toward the south, taking down some of the resources vital to the Allies, without the USA objecting to it. Because the sphere of influence that they wanted to build was over much of the pacific after all.
Then there are other consideration, would that focus shift of the Japanese to the Soviets, only delay the USA joining the Allies or stop it altogether, of course, the USA didn't win the war all on their own, but they gave a significant boost to the Allies that without the war against the Japanese might have looked quite different.
And finally. There is one other consideration that I think is important. With the Soviets distracted in the East, it's very much possible that Germany would have secured the resources of oils that they attacked the Soviet Union for in the first place. With the fuel to burn, and possibly a weaker support to the Allies, it's certainly possible to wonder if the Allies would have been able to stop Germany, and in quite the same way.
There are so many factors. And I'm not entirely convinced that it's possible to even completely cover everything.
